Is Bad News Biased? How Poll Reporting Affects Perceptions of Media Bias and Presumed Voter Behavior

Abstract

This paper combines an investigation of perceptions of news coverage of polls with perceptions of specific presumptions about behavioral consequences of that news coverage. We examine how citizens evaluate polling news in the context of battleground state polls are a prominent part of election news coverage. In testing how polling results impact how partisans evaluate the news stories through which the polls are reported, we show that partisans tended to see poll-focused news articles as biased against their candidate and that perceived bias was amplified when a favored candidate trailed in the poll. Additionally, we found that citizens believe polling stories have consequences on turnout, assuming that such reports motivate their co-partisans but largely have no effect on their adversaries. Partisans thought ingroup members would be particularly motivated by polls showing their candidate slightly behind. Understanding how individual perceptions of what others’ behavior will be helps scholars and journalists alike understand how poll coverage is interpreted, how individuals perceive the people around them, and how individuals choose to engage in political behavior themselves.

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Under review
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